This post will illustrate a point we try to make often. Please follow me -- this isn't about false claims per se; it's about the fact that we don't know what percentage of all rape claims are actual rapes, so rape advocates shouldn't pretend they do.
Rape "experts" have no difficulty tossing out a definite percentage of actual and false claims. Some are stuck on the two percent false claims (which is a lie); others say 9 percent. They thereby suggest that since 2 or 9 percent are false, the other 98 or 91 percent must be actual rapes.
Let's not mince words: it's a lie. But it's what they do, and we must be vigilant about it.
I repeatedly make the point that we are reasonably certain that some rape reports were actual rapes; and that some were false claims. However, the majority of rape claims fall in that big, gray area that defies certainty.
Rape advocates wrongly, and disingenuously, suggest that the big, gray area must be comprised of actual claims.
But let's talk reality. Let's pretend we are reasonbly certain that 15 percent are false, and that 15 percent were actual rapes -- we do not know about the rest. So how should we characterize the percentage of false claims? Should it be 15%? Only if we make clear that we only know that only 15% were likely actual rape. Rape advocates don't do that: they say that "only 15% of all rape claims are false," suggesting that the other 85% were actual rapes. So to avoid the lies, we should insist that they only talk about the ones of which we are reasonably certain. Thus, in my example: 50% of all rape claims of which we are reasonably certain are false.
To illustrate this big, gray area, here's a snapshot of one city, Saginaw, for 2009. It's not a typical American city because it is very violent. There were 119 incidents of criminal sexual conduct (which includes penetration) investigated in 2009: "Of those, the city pursued 22 arrest warrants, closed 22 for lack of leads, deemed 17 unfounded and continue to actively investigate 35. Another 13 involved uncooperative victims, while 10 await evidence analysis . . . ."
Of all those investigations, the city pursued arrest warrants for 18.5% of the reports. But 43.7% were closed for "lack of leads," or because they were "unfounded" (which usually include both claims that are false for which there were insufficient evidence) or involved uncooperative victims. About 37.8% are still being investigated.
How many of these are reasonably certain to be false? We can't tell from these stats. We would be speculating if we tossed out a figure.
But how many are reasonably certain to be actual rapes? Well, we don't know that, either. Perhaps some of the 18.5% referenced above, perhaps more, perhaps less.
You see where this is going: we have no idea how many actual rapes were committed, or the actual percentage. But it is grossly dishonest to suggest, for example, that "only" 14% of all rape claims are "unfounded" (thereby suggesting that the other 86% were actual rapes).
That is the kind of lie rape advocates tell.
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4 comments:
I've mentioned, on several occasions, my belief that many of those "unreported rapes" would actually be behttp://www.webshots.com/r/mdocs/hometter classified as "unreported FRA's". I've heard a number of accounts regarding women who have stories about being raped(which went unreported) but which weren't actually rapes at all. And, I suggested that many people likewise know of such situations.
Well, here's a good example from a discussion thread over at The Spearhead on the conviction of Biurny Peguero Gonzalez - Wheels of Justice Beginning to Turn - from a woman who also knows of such an instance of a woman who was claiming (to her friends) about being raped, but not wanting to report it to police; which, not surprisingly, turned out not to be true.
Let me tease a bit of her comments:
"A number of years ago, I *was* completely horrified and taken back upon learning that a female friend who had claimed to have been forced into sexual acts by a guy was lying (the specific details involved are being left out so that this won’t be a novela) – luckily it was before I got the ball rolling on some private justice, which was the plan because she didn’t want to go to the police etcetc."
Just thought I'd throw that in. Well, anyway, I always especially enjoy hearing such things coming from women. Their honesty regarding the knowledge of the reality of of FRA's gives me hope that people ARE starting to catch on.
I noticed your astute comment over there even before you pointed this out, slwerner.
"I've mentioned, on several occasions, my belief that many of those "unreported rapes" would actually be behttp://www.webshots.com/r/mdocs/hometter classified as "unreported FRA's"."
I agree, and also not all false rape accusations are made to the police. They are often made to friends, co-workers, commanding officers, the victim's business clients and professional associates, etc.
"I agree, and also not all false rape accusations are made to the police. They are often made to friends, co-workers, commanding officers, the victim's business clients and professional associates, etc."
This is an excellent point that I had decided the other day to do a post on. A lot of times, women hold the threat of a false report over men's heads. Other times, you are correct -- they tell other people. At times, those others encourage the false accuser to go to the police. Having a false charge hanging over your head is often an awful thing, too. It is not just the reputational harm (which is often extreme), it's the threat that she might someday go to the police.
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