The attempt to determine with any degree of certainly the prevalence of rape claims that did not involve an actual rape is impossible. The attempt to determine the prevalence of unreported rape claims is even more problematic. Anyone who posits an exact percentage for either lacks credibility. It is fair to say, based on every unbiased study ever performed and other objective data that we report on this site, that the percentage of rape claims for which no rape actually occurred is significant. See our recent article on Glenn Sacks' site: http://glennsacks.com/blog/?p=3159. How significant? What does it matter? Is is half of all rape claims? It could be; maybe more -- but isn't it enough to say that it is a significant problem?
Here is a snapshot of Ventura County, California, which had a population of 753,197 in the 2000 census. In Ventura County last year, women reported being raped by men 134 times. Here's how the numbers break down: "Of 134 alleged rapes reported around Ventura County last year, the victim was at least acquainted with the assailant in 110, according to police statistics . . . . Authorities counted four women who were drugged before being raped in 2008. . . . . When the statistics were compiled early this year, authorities had made arrests in 23 of the 134 cases. Many of the other cases were still open, dropped or deemed unfounded when the statistics were compiled."
First, what does this tell us about how rampant rape is? Assume there are approximately 400,000 females in Ventura County. Based on last year's reported rapes, that works out to the following percentage of females who reported being raped: .000335.
Hmm, that's a long way from the one-in-four stat we always hear about on college campuses, isn't it? Could college campuses be that much more dangerous than everywhere else? Most people would agree the opposite is true -- college campuses are safer than everywhere else.
Or maybe there is underreporting. Everyone concedes there is underreporting (but a lot of the people who "concede" it the loudest also deny the fact of false reports, which may be more prevalent than underreporting). How much undererporting would be necessary to get to that one-in-four level?
Let's just say it would be underreporting of Biblical proportions.
Putting aside the ideologically based (a nice way of saying "biased") sources, these stats are consistent with every unbiased study ever conducted: in the United States (and the same is true for the rest of the English speaking world), rape is not rampant.
It's not. Despite all the twisting and pounding and hysterics of sexual assault advocates, it's not.
And of the rape claims made, a significant percentage are false.
These stats from Ventura County are typical. Some of the cases for which no arrests have been made may involve actual rapes. Some for which arrests have been made may not involve actual rapes. Only seventeen percent of all rape claims made last year resulted in arrest thus far, even though the vast majority of the cases involve a known alleged male assailant (and the odds of an arrest decrease with time). Of the huge percentage for which no arrests have been made, most of which involve a known alleged assailant, it is safe to conclude that many of those alleged rapes simply never occurred. As notd above, that is consistent with every unbiased study ever conducted -- http://glennsacks.com/blog/?p=3159 -- and every similar snapshot of a given locale that we see. Plano, Texas last year put the number at 47% false claims.
In sum, it's a moving target. But it's enough to say that the number of false claims is significant without being able to say for certain. Beyond that, any attempt to draw firm conclusions from any of it regarding the prevalence of false claims is a waste of time.
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12 comments:
”Or maybe there is underreporting.”
I’m one who certainly believes that many rapes do go unreported. But, this is not a matter of some imagined Patriarchy suppressing women and making it difficult for them to come forward. Indeed, women are provided with rape counseling centers and call-in lines in an effort to make them feel more comfortable coming forward. And, those “All men are potential rapist” seminars are also aimed at getting women to report rapes (even those that rational people would realize are not truly rapes – just regrets). If women do not come forward, it simply cannot be laid at the feet of men.
Shame is probably the biggest impediment to women reporting that they’ve been raped, followed by cultural considerations. While we can feel sympathy for women who, for whatever reason choose not to report, one thing remains perfectly clear - there is ”zero” under-reporting of false rapes (I know it seems like that should be obvious, by too many feminists don’t seem to connect those dots).
Even if (sadly) half of all real rapes end up unreported, it does nothing to change that fact that a significant number of the rapes that are reported are found to be unsubstantiated. I can only guess that false reporters feel none of the shame nor cultural restraints that real rape victims feel. From what I’ve read on this site and elsewhere, they seem to care only for their self-interest (which, again, no Patriarchy is pushing them to do).
”Some of the cases for which no arrests have been made may involve actual rapes. Some for which arrests have been made may not involve actual rapes.”
Both points are quite true. The sad reality is that some men who rape women are very good at covering their tracks and leaving no evidence. Still, that number is a vanishingly small percentage of the overall male population.
And likewise, some of the women who make false reports are also very good and creating their stories, and creating false evidence. Some may only be found out well after the fact, when an innocent man has suffered greatly because of them. Women who get away with false rape reports are every bit as bad as the men who get away with rapes. It’s time for feminist and chivalrists to come to grips with this fact.
”Plano, Texas last year put the number at 47% false claims.”
It’s also time for them to come to grips with the fact that the “only 2%” claim has absolutely no basis in reality.
I do not believe there is a crisis epidemic of un-reported rapes.
I do not believe that only 2% of rape accussations are false.
I do believe that rape hysteria is being fed and enabled by missinformation ...from the gender feminist/ law enforcement communities.. unholly ALLIANCE.
Do you have a study or article that documents the Plano 47% amount?
If so, please post...that's dynamite!
EW, it's from a September 17, 2008 Plano Courier Star article. But as is so often the case in the false rape tableau, the fact about the prevalence of false claims is hidden in an article that is intended to convey the impression that rape is rampant. So, aside from the statement of this fact, you have to put up with the de rigueur feminist hysteria. Too bad for them that the facts are the facts.
In any event, hidden away in the article is this: "This year Plano’s sex crimes investigators have reviewed 34 cases, 16 of which were dismissed due to evidence proving false accusation." Sexual assault victims afraid to face court
one should conduct an academic study of the percentage of rape accusations, where the accuser was afraid to come forward, that turned out to be a false rape accusation.
Could it be a percentage of these ???rape??? accusers are afraid of a judicial system, because they are afraid of being caught in a lie.
The rape hysteria crowd can get hysterical all they want, but the dark ages where women can make false rape accusations with impunity are hopefully nearing the end.
I thought the "1 in 4" claim on at colleges, was a reference to all women over their lifetimes..i.e. "1 in 4 women is raped during their lifetime". Of course that is way bloated, but I'm not sure the complaint is "1 in 4 college women" or "1 in 4 women on a given campus". Even some feminist-leaning people might chuckle at that.
where is that bible thing coming from?
Are there any known national stats concerning false rapes ?
I want to share this with everyone:
Man cleared of rape after court shown phone footage of woman 'actively' taking part in sex
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1166466/Man-cleared-rape-court-shown-phone-footage-woman-actively-taking-sex.html
We have an epidemic of false rape reporting, and President Obama is worried about what the Afganis are doing!
He is also too worried about his national counsel on woman and girls to even care.
Anon,
Thanks for the link. That is set as a story for us, but sadly, due to the volume of false rape stories, we are seeing about 3+ weeks of stories to post. It may be a bit before it comes out. I expect, as we are seeing spring break time, we will see an influx of false accusations coming to light. We may need to post 2-3 a day just to keep up.
slwerner,
I've always wondered how they come up with the number of unreported rapes? How do you count something you don't know happened? I'm sure there is under reporting, but there is absolutely no way you can come close to an accurate count of how many.
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