Friday, April 3, 2009

Snapshot of Ventura County: rape is not rampant, but numbers are consistent with trends everywhere -- a large percentage of false rape claims

The attempt to determine with any degree of certainly the prevalence of rape claims that did not involve an actual rape is impossible. The attempt to determine the prevalence of unreported rape claims is even more problematic. Anyone who posits an exact percentage for either lacks credibility. It is fair to say, based on every unbiased study ever performed and other objective data that we report on this site, that the percentage of rape claims for which no rape actually occurred is significant. See our recent article on Glenn Sacks' site: How significant? What does it matter? Is is half of all rape claims? It could be; maybe more -- but isn't it enough to say that it is a significant problem?

Here is a snapshot of Ventura County, California, which had a population of 753,197 in the 2000 census. In Ventura County last year, women reported being raped by men 134 times. Here's how the numbers break down: "Of 134 alleged rapes reported around Ventura County last year, the victim was at least acquainted with the assailant in 110, according to police statistics . . . . Authorities counted four women who were drugged before being raped in 2008. . . . . When the statistics were compiled early this year, authorities had made arrests in 23 of the 134 cases. Many of the other cases were still open, dropped or deemed unfounded when the statistics were compiled."

First, what does this tell us about how rampant rape is? Assume there are approximately 400,000 females in Ventura County. Based on last year's reported rapes, that works out to the following percentage of females who reported being raped: .000335.

Hmm, that's a long way from the one-in-four stat we always hear about on college campuses, isn't it? Could college campuses be that much more dangerous than everywhere else? Most people would agree the opposite is true -- college campuses are safer than everywhere else.

Or maybe there is underreporting. Everyone concedes there is underreporting (but a lot of the people who "concede" it the loudest also deny the fact of false reports, which may be more prevalent than underreporting). How much undererporting would be necessary to get to that one-in-four level?

Let's just say it would be underreporting of Biblical proportions.

Putting aside the ideologically based (a nice way of saying "biased") sources, these stats are consistent with every unbiased study ever conducted: in the United States (and the same is true for the rest of the English speaking world), rape is not rampant.

It's not. Despite all the twisting and pounding and hysterics of sexual assault advocates, it's not.

And of the rape claims made, a significant percentage are false.

These stats from Ventura County are typical. Some of the cases for which no arrests have been made may involve actual rapes. Some for which arrests have been made may not involve actual rapes. Only seventeen percent of all rape claims made last year resulted in arrest thus far, even though the vast majority of the cases involve a known alleged male assailant (and the odds of an arrest decrease with time). Of the huge percentage for which no arrests have been made, most of which involve a known alleged assailant, it is safe to conclude that many of those alleged rapes simply never occurred. As notd above, that is consistent with every unbiased study ever conducted -- -- and every similar snapshot of a given locale that we see. Plano, Texas last year put the number at 47% false claims.

In sum, it's a moving target. But it's enough to say that the number of false claims is significant without being able to say for certain. Beyond that, any attempt to draw firm conclusions from any of it regarding the prevalence of false claims is a waste of time.